2013 Home Run Derby Predictions: Chris Davis Will Win All Star Contest

By Michael Moraitis--Featured Columnist

There are few if any hitters in all of Major League Baseball who are hotter than Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles in the batter's box this season, but that's especially true in the home run department and that's exactly what he needs to win the 2013 Home Run Derby.

Davis comes into the contest on long ball fire having hit four homers in his last four games and currently sits atop the home run mountain in the MLB at the moment with 37 homers, which not to mention is right on pace to tie or break Roger Maris' 61-homer mark back in 1961.

It's true that Davis' average has dipped from a once surreal .357 to a now more realistic .319 in a little over a month, but the one thing that has yet to slow down for the Orioles first baseman is his home run totals.

Davis has tallied nine, 10 and 12 homers in the months of April, May and June, respectively, and his six homers this month puts him just about on pace to either match or even surpass his previous monthly totals.

As far as his average is concerned, it doesn't mean squat in this instance. Davis will be facing batting practice pitches in the derby and won't have to deal with pitchers being afraid of him and possibly pitching around him more as a result.

That reason, I contend, is exactly why Davis' average has dipped since June 6. But again, he doesn't have to get base knocks on Monday night, he just has to do what he's done better than any other player in baseball this season and that's putting the ball in the seats.

Being that it's at Citi Field this season, hitters will have a tougher time sending the balls into the stands as the New York Mets home park is widely considered a pitcher's park. That means the guys with the most power have the best chance of launching long balls and Davis certainly qualifies as such.

With all things being equal and some of the best home run hitters in the game taking part in the 2013 Home Run Derby, Davis is the hottest home run hitter of them all and that's exactly why he's the best bet to take home the honors this year.

Chris Davis: Baltimore Orioles 1st Baseman Continues Assault on Roger Maris' Record

Michael Moraitis--Featured Columnist

Don't look now, but Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles is currently right on pace to either tie or break the original and only valid single-season home run record which is currently held by Roger Maris.

Davis continued his assault on the record by bashing his 37th home run of the season against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. The homer also gave Davis a share of the record with Reggie Jackson for the most homers by an American League player before the All-Star break, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun.

Chris Davis' 37 homers tie Reggie Jackson's AL record for most HRs at the break, set in 1969. #Orioles
— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) July 14, 2013

The record, of couse, is held by Barry Bonds during his historic but disrespected record-breaking season back in 2001, per ESPN Stats & Info.

Chris Davis: 37 HR ... tied for 2nd-most before All-Star Break in MLB history. Only player with more-- Barry Bonds (39 in 2001)
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 14, 2013

Not only did Davis tie Jackson's AL record, but he has also reached the 37-homer mark in his team's 96th game of the season. By comparison, it took Maris 95 games into the season to reach No. 37, so clearly Davis is right on track to match or break the true record.

So the big question is: does Davis have the juice (no pun intended) to get all the way to 61 and beyond?

He has certainly proved he can hit homers and hit them in bunches. The problem that will remain is teams may start choosing to intentionally walk Baltimore's home run machine and that will greatly lower his chances of breaking the record.

Even if opposing pitchers throw to him, Davis can expect to see far less appealing pitches to hit moving forward.

It's also been proven time and time again that just because a hot start occurs the first "half" of the season doesn't mean it will continue. Most times, players who are having the season that Davis is will taper off and finish somewhere between 50 to 60 long balls in total.

Mr. October, for example, did even worse than that by finishing with just 47 homers after setting the pre-All Star break record back in 1969. It certainly isn't a stretch to believe Davis will do the same or maybe just a bit better.

In fact, the law of averages makes it probable he will, but that doesn't mean it's impossible.

But, regardless of the skepticism, I continue to echo the sentiment that Davis' chase for 61 must be more respected by the league, the fans and the media. Granted, there are plenty of people starting to come along to Davis' potentially historic season, but far too many are as close to ignoring it as you can get.

That rings especially true when you compare the coverage Davis is getting to that of the home run chases of Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds back in the late 1990s, early 2000s.

It's puzzling at best as to why this lack of attention is fact. Not only will Davis' breaking of the record bring great publicity to Major League Baseball, but as I've said before, it will also show fans that records can be broken the right way without any cheating or enhancements at all.

And, with the current steroid mess going on with guys like Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun, that type of exposure would be a huge lift for the sport.


Hopefully now that people see he is right on pace with Maris' infamous 1961 season, the attention will begin to come around for Davis. However, maybe the lack of attention is actually a good thing because the amount of pressure on Davis isn't as great and he can relax more at the plate while continuing to attempt to make history the rest of the way in 2013.